Can Goldman Sachs Continue to Move Higher?

With shares of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) trading around $168, is GS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Goldman Sachs is engaged in investment banking, securities, and investment management. It provides a range of financial services to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high net worth individuals. The company operates in four segments: investment banking, institutional client services, investing and lending, and investment management. Through its segments, Goldman Sachs provides valuable investment services to consumers and companies worldwide.

A former Goldman Sachs trader who pleaded guilty to fraudulently building an unauthorized $8.3 billion futures trade should repay $118 million to his former employer to cover its losses and spend about three years in prison, federal prosecutors said.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Goldman Sachs stock has made significant progress in the last several quarters. The stock is currently surging higher and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Goldman Sachs is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Goldman Sachs options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Goldman Sachs options	20.91%	70%	68%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
December Options	Flat	Average
January Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Goldman Sachs’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Goldman Sachs look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4	2012 Q3
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	1.05%	107.87%	9.44%	203.29%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	-19.51%	0.21%	1.42%	52.69%
Earnings Reaction	-2.42%	-1.69%	-1.61%	4.05%

Goldman Sachs has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about Goldman Sachs’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Goldman Sachs stock done relative to its peers, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and sector?

	Goldman Sachs	JPMorgan Chase	Citigroup	Morgan Stanley	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	32.78%	28.66%	31.83%	63.00%	32.09%

Goldman Sachs has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs is a bellwether in the financial sector that strives to provide valuable financial products and services to consumers and businesses around the world. A former Goldman Sachs trader who pleaded guilty to fraudulently building an unauthorized $8.3 billion futures trade should repay $118million to his former employer. The stock has been moving higher in recent years and is currently trading near highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been on the rise. However, investors have had conflicting feelings about Goldman Sachs's earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Goldman Sachs has been a relative performance leader year-to-date. Look for Goldman Sachs to OUTPERFORM.